Simulation of COVID-19 disease epidemic in Iran based on SIR model

Mycobacteriology Research Center (MRC), National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid
Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Biostatistics, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University
of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3 Clinical Tuberculosis and Epidemiology Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
(NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
4 Chronic Respiratory Diseases Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid
Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
5 Tracheal Diseases Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
6 Department Forensic Medicine, School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
7 Virology Research Center, , Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
*Corresponding authors: Mehdi Kazempour Dizaji, Address: Mycobacteriology Research Center (MRC) Shahid Beheshti
University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Email: mkazempour@sbmu.ac.ir, Tel: +982127122080
Abstract
Background & Aims: The spread of the COVID-19 virus is currently considered the most important global health challenge. Therefore,
it is very important to study and simulate the patterns of spread of this disease based on mathematical models. This study aimed to
simulate the COVID-19 epidemic based on the SIR model, in Iran.
Materials & Methods: In this study, the COVID-19 epidemic was simulated based on the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)
mathematical model. According to the parameters of this model, different scenarios for this disease were examined. Finally, the
simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic based on the values of these parameters was presented for Iran.
Results: According to the results of this study, with increasing the level of social restrictions and health measures, the reproductive rate
of COVID-19 decreased, and also with access to effective medicines and vaccines, the recovery rate of this disease increased, and
fewer people became infected. Moreover, results showed that with the continuation of social restrictions and attention to health issues
by the people in Iran, the peak of COVID-19 is seen within 50 days from the beginning of the epidemic also about 5% of the population
is affected by this disease. The end of the initial wave of the disease was predicted at least 100 days after the onset of the epidemic.
Conclusion: A simulation study to evaluate the prevalence of COVID-19 will provide comprehensive and complete information about
the role of health care measures and social restrictions to prevent the spread of this disease to health researchers